Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 39.692735 47.020290 55.111456 64.679387 75.653795 87.816222 102.282709
2024-10-13 27.667071 36.955572 48.274570 62.957630 81.361227 103.515208 132.034423
2024-10-20 23.817158 34.762487 49.091787 68.941946 95.398771 129.081699 174.779265
2024-10-27 18.044822 28.629940 43.442354 65.227734 95.904163 136.929886 195.177350
2024-11-03 15.642940 26.601332 42.798537 67.800462 104.577415 155.694967 230.866889
2024-11-10 14.045475 25.413071 43.049086 71.445083 114.815147 177.107377 271.465754
2024-11-17 12.608345 24.185214 42.976390 74.431388 124.146532 197.694408 312.088128
2024-11-24 10.906196 22.194855 41.368168 74.722869 129.238512 212.234772 344.651877
2024-12-01 9.092655 19.673696 38.501177 72.558009 130.124218 220.296136 367.813751
2024-12-08 7.962286 18.213158 37.232299 72.849725 134.859361 234.431171 400.896582
2024-12-15 7.107266 17.135544 36.485991 73.908527 140.854192 250.810660 438.282125
2024-12-22 5.637968 14.516029 32.498448 68.670145 135.539824 248.392904 445.358694
2024-12-29 4.994315 13.675767 32.069375 70.426093 143.480225 269.815646 494.967519
2025-01-05 4.100999 12.086061 29.926768 68.726019 145.205064 281.201096 529.381207
2025-01-12 3.998034 12.382719 31.793595 75.196424 162.696327 321.133771 614.726407
2025-01-19 3.158108 10.583734 28.760109 71.192653 159.746015 324.581855 637.198994
2025-01-26 2.878873 10.220172 28.928619 73.967571 170.284663 353.076865 705.394815
2025-02-02 2.693237 10.077980 29.595712 77.896599 183.458161 387.252124 785.670551
2025-02-09 2.487056 9.821645 29.936694 81.114433 195.413748 419.852828 864.830815
2025-02-16 2.173109 9.138561 29.074185 81.428444 201.265919 441.125295 924.220636
2025-02-23 1.801245 8.145234 27.208677 79.095966 201.177384 450.778586 962.317408
2025-03-02 1.577956 7.600048 26.468880 79.410308 206.889616 472.200704 1023.860605
2025-03-09 1.409048 7.202877 26.079329 80.551130 214.532776 497.935671 1095.010948